From Sci-Fi to Supply Chain: How Cultivated Meat Is Beating the Odds

Courtesy: ShutterShock

In 2013, the world’s first lab-grown burger made its media debut on a London stage. The cost? A staggering €250,000. A price that, at the time, turned heads—and turned away investors, skeptics, and consumers alike. It was a technological marvel, but also a symbol of everything that seemed impossible about cultivated meat. Too expensive. Too complex. Too hypothetical.

Fast-forward to 2025, and the conversation has changed dramatically.

According to a recent report by Lever VC, a global food-tech investment firm, a new generation of cultivated meat companies has not only shattered the projected cost barriers but is now entering a phase where commercial viability looks far less theoretical and far more immediate. The report, titled A Second Generation of Cultivated Meat Companies Breaks Through Projected Cost Barriers, details how young startups—many still under the radar—have quietly beaten industry forecasts once considered ironclad.

They didn’t just beat the odds. They made the skeptics eat their words.

The Wall of Skepticism

In 2021, a techno-economic analysis (TEA) by David Humbird, funded by the Open Philanthropy Project, made waves in the alternative protein world. Humbird, a chemical engineering consultant, concluded that it would be practically impossible for cultivated meat production to get below $16 per kilogram—mainly due to the high cost of growth media, which he estimated would bottom out at $2.50/liter in the best-case scenario.

The study was picked up by The Counter, then echoed in Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal, amplifying doubts across the food and investment worlds. The narrative was simple: cultivated meat may be scientifically fascinating, but it just wasn’t going to work economically.

And yet, less than four years later, Lever VC’s report shows that some companies are producing cultivated meat at costs below $10 per kilogram. Growth media costs, once predicted to be an insurmountable hurdle, have fallen to $1/liter—or even less. That’s up to 30 times cheaper than Humbird thought possible.

What Changed?

The short answer: engineering, pragmatism, and focus.

Rather than chasing the lofty ideal of fully structured, 1:1 replicas of steak and chicken breast, second-generation cultivated meat companies are building hybrid products. They blend cell-cultivated biomass with plant-based proteins, hitting the right taste and texture without overengineering. Some companies have gone even leaner—creating undifferentiated cell masses that deliver flavor and protein but skip the costly and complex tissue development.

“Why try to grow the entire cow when all you need is the part that makes it taste like beef?” one startup founder told AgFunderNews earlier this year.

There’s also been a massive shift toward in-house media production. Companies now manufacture their own growth factors—previously sourced from pharma-grade suppliers—with recombinant protein expression in yeast and bacteria. Because food doesn’t need pharmaceutical-grade purity, these companies are reusing low-cost purification materials and optimizing potency through protein engineering, cutting media costs dramatically.

Courtesy: Aleph Farms

Scaling Without Breaking the Bank

Cost of goods sold (COGS) is only one part of the story. To truly scale, capital expenditures (CapEx) must also fall. Building a commercial-scale production facility using off-the-shelf biopharma equipment could run hundreds of millions of dollars.

So, startups are innovating here too. Some are adapting existing pharmaceutical bioreactors for food-grade applications using lower-cost materials. Others are exploring continuous production models and perfusion reactors—technologies that increase yield by up to 10-fold without requiring more space or major infrastructure changes.

While still complex and risky, especially at scale, these technologies mark a clear break from the early, expensive prototypes of a decade ago. The focus now is not on mimicking animal biology to perfection, but on delivering affordable protein with the right sensory qualities—enough to compete on taste, texture, and price.

Momentum from Around the World

Global support is picking up. In March 2025, Aleph Farms announced a new version of its whole-cut cultivated steak technology, promising fewer steps and lower production costs. The same month, San Francisco’s Mission Barns became one of the first U.S. companies to receive FDA clearance for cultivated pork fat, with plans to launch through local restaurants and grocers.

Meanwhile, South Korea is betting big on cultivated foods, pledging $10 million for a national research center to fast-track development and regulation. Similar moves are emerging in Israel, Singapore, and the EU, hinting at a broader wave of policy and infrastructure support.

These developments reinforce a key point: while consumer adoption may still be gradual, governments and regulators are positioning cultivated meat as a serious tool in the fight against climate change, biodiversity loss, and antibiotic resistance.

Still Early, but No Longer Far-Fetched

To be clear, cultivated meat is not yet flooding supermarket shelves. Production remains limited, regulatory hurdles persist, and consumer familiarity is still low. But the narrative is shifting—from science experiment to industrial contender.

Leading companies have made cost breakthroughs without government subsidies or full-scale economies. With both now on the horizon, the pace of progress could accelerate.

The Humbird TEA and its successors weren’t wrong to be skeptical. They were looking at what existed then. But they underestimated the resourcefulness and speed of this sector’s innovators.

Today, the question isn’t whether cultivated meat can compete.

It’s when.